tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11181353799754671732011-11-27T18:37:17.890-05:00When the market wind blows, let's ignore the rumblings and listen for the coded messages - quietly.John Lunoreply@blogger.comBlogger1281100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-47888158878263448242010-04-10T13:18:00.002-04:002010-04-10T15:29:53.712-04:00

"Only a small group of Wall Street insiders was privy to what became known as the Magnetar Trade.""the Magnetar Trade worked this way: The hedge fund bought the riskiest portion of a kind of securities known as collateralized debt obligations -- CDOs. If housing prices kept rising, this would provide a solid return for many years. But that's not what hedge funds are after. They want outsized

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-86924384894587967552010-03-30T01:20:00.003-04:002010-03-30T01:57:41.937-04:00

"As a job, “day trader” registers in roughly the same way as “disco ball manufacturer” or “Brooklyn farmer.” You know that someone has to be making disco balls and that maybe there are still a few plots of arable land in Brooklyn."@ it's like amateur poker players making runs to the casinos. The survival rate is low."Mr. Lindloff, who Mr. Gomez says is the more skilled of the two, says he has

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-44582501181420431842010-03-26T01:28:00.004-04:002010-03-26T01:44:07.110-04:00

Doug Kass is brilliant. His analysis is always intelligent, well rounded, thought provoking, unique, punctured with a dry sense of humor. However, like many market pundits who got this turn not exactly right, he is wrong but he is not. Behind the mea culpa, you sense the stubbornness and self-righteousness. The trouble is, it is not that admitting "I was wrong" that matters. It is

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-1044613963160537492010-03-14T05:47:00.003-04:002010-03-14T06:09:53.282-04:00

"An accounting maneuver known as "Repo 105" was a "drug" that helped maintain a veneer of health on Lehman Brothers' crumbling balance sheet in the months running up to its bankruptcy, a report from a court-appointed examiner shows.""At its peak in the second quarter of 2008, Lehman used Repo 105 to effectively move around $50 billion of assets off its balance sheet, according to the report.""One

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-30793783514913173552010-03-04T06:39:00.005-05:002010-03-05T08:41:48.785-05:00

"Gap Inc (GPS.N) posted a 45 percent rise in profit during its holiday quarter, helped by fewer discounts and improved sales in all divisions, and gave a 2010 profit forecast that beat Wall Street's estimates."@ turnaround in the making under able hands. What a difference it makes!"The operator of Gap, Banana Republic and Old Navy apparel stores also raised its fiscal 2010 dividend 18 percent to

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-56085827036654069162010-03-04T05:45:00.004-05:002010-03-04T06:03:38.791-05:00

"American International Group Inc (AIG.N) reported a quarterly loss of $8.9 billion, hurt by loss reserves and efforts to repay the U.S. government, as it struggles to find its feet more than a year after its $182.3 billion rescue."@ $182.3 billion in the eye of the storm. The sequel to the Lehman collapse - logjam, clog of the financial blood veins and a seizure."The loss shows the U.S.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-31717842882217324002010-03-04T04:40:00.004-05:002010-03-04T06:05:25.225-05:00

"Calpers, the biggest U.S. public pension fund, will review its assumed actuarial rate of return of 7.75 percent and will make a recommendation to its board whether to lower it in December, a spokesman said on Sunday."@ The all mighty Calpers has come down on its knees. The downward adjustment of the rate assumption not just means the lowering of the bar. It has significant implication on risk

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-43522898862960451422010-03-04T04:15:00.002-05:002010-03-04T04:32:09.127-05:00

"The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp is planning to sell $1.8 billion of guaranteed asset-backed debt, according to IFR, in what may be a step toward restoring confidence in securities closely tied to the financial meltdown."@ It's just a liquidity fix. Liquidity = Confidence?"The debt will be backed by residential mortgage assets of failed banks seized by the FDIC..."@ A balance sheet fix

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-73913960012380129162010-03-03T05:07:00.004-05:002010-03-04T04:32:53.309-05:00

That's typical of main stream media coverage of investment or almost anything. They need an angle. They need a story. And they make believe.Read my lips, no I will read between the lines."To learn that your mutual-fund firm's lineup posted negative returns over a decade is one thing; to realize that almost $60 billion of investors' wealth was wiped out is another matter entirely."@ 60 billion,

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-28361669906869497542010-03-03T04:20:00.003-05:002010-03-03T04:43:48.832-05:00

A good article on the brief history of the "uptick rule" on short sale."The original uptick rule, put in place in the late 1930s, required an upward move before a short sale was allowed; it made short sales more difficult by easing some of the downward pressure that builds when a market is in freefall."@ fair rationale and attempt; however, looking at the flip side, why isn't there such a rule

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-24865381794142356172010-03-02T02:54:00.004-05:002010-03-02T03:03:55.094-05:00

"It's now down over 17% for 2010."@ v. flat VIX - the bogey."It has some structural problems, as we often note. It proxies a 30 day VIX future, so as such will lose small each day it rolls with VIX in contango."@ the bleeding."You can't speculate and short term trade with them, but you just can't hold them. If you expect the market to dip or volatility to pick up, just keep it simple and buy SPX

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-45977380616670802492010-02-22T05:42:00.004-05:002010-02-22T06:01:12.842-05:00

A bit behind on the reading. The comments on the 4Q GDP numbers at Investors Insight (Jan 29, 2010) were very helpful of putting the surprisingly high GDP numbers into perspective."First...over 60% (3.7%) of the growth came from inventory rebuilding, as opposed to just 0.7% in the third quarter."@ short-term variation or volatilities in GDP numbers, not necessarily a trend made."Second, as my

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-71729919150979317552010-02-19T05:55:00.003-05:002010-02-19T06:05:29.423-05:00

"Crossing $1 might also make the stock more palatable to mutual funds that would shy away from a company whose shares trade under $1.""Sirius has bolstered its books following an investment last year from John Malone's Liberty Media (LINTA.O) that gave Malone a 40 percent equity stake in the company."@ Survival at a huge cost."Last month, Sirius said it will report more than $100 million in free

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-63169563462961377392010-02-07T11:18:00.002-05:002010-02-07T11:23:24.664-05:00

"A senior policy adviser to China's central bank said Monday that asset bubbles were a concern for the nations' policy makers, reflecting official unease about the rapid gains in real estate prices..."@ take a page from US; however, unlike US policymakers, they are not in denial."Fan also praised recent efforts to rein in excessive liquidity as "good, timely and necessary," even while he

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-39207773882570160902010-02-07T10:55:00.006-05:002010-03-01T09:47:44.579-05:00

"The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is estimating that the sector's share of gross domestic product made its biggest one-year jump ever, going to 17.3% in 2009 from 16.2% in 2008.""And the agency says public insurers like Medicare and Medicaid will spend the majority of U.S. health-care dollars by 2012, about four years earlier than expected." @ The effect of aging population."Simply

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-47778952988190655602010-02-07T06:47:00.003-05:002010-02-07T11:08:54.802-05:00

"Movie Gallery Inc, the operator of the Hollywood Video rental chain, plans to close 805 poorly performing U.S. stores after falling sales and mounting losses led to its second bankruptcy in three years."@ Somebody got to be hurt, real bad."Movie Gallery and video retailer rivals such as Blockbuster Inc have suffered as more consumers switch to services such as Google Inc's YouTube, Netflix Inc's

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-49448304693658065612010-02-07T06:32:00.002-05:002010-02-07T06:38:13.821-05:00

"China has ordered a further clampdown on excessive bank lending to ensure credit has not illegally entered the stock or property markets...""China might increase interest rates once consumer inflation exceeds the one-year benchmark deposit rate of 2.25 percent, Ba Shusong, a prominent government adviser, told Reuters. Consumer prices rose 1.9 percent in the year to December.""A half-point

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-26454886039363937192010-01-26T20:29:00.004-05:002010-02-07T11:15:10.894-05:00

"International alarm over Greece’s debt crisis abated on Monday when investors flocked to buy the government’s first bond issue of the year, an indication that it may run into less trouble than anticipated in meeting its short-term financing needs.""Investors placed about €20bn ($28bn, £17bn) in orders for the five-year, fixed-rate bond, four times more than the government had reckoned on.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-56812717739634105822010-01-24T09:21:00.004-05:002010-02-07T11:15:45.201-05:00

"The dollar jumped to its highest level in five months versus the euro on Wednesday as reports that China is reining in lending led investors to shun risky assets and worries about Greece's budget problems kept pressure on the shared currency.""The euro fell to $1.4107 from $1.4301 late Tuesday, hitting its lowest level.""To the extent that the news of China's tightening is a negative for global

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-53287225751362003242010-01-24T05:14:00.004-05:002010-02-07T11:16:05.590-05:00

"The proposals, to be added to an overhaul of regulations being considered by Congress, would prohibit banks from running proprietary trading operations solely for their own profit and sponsoring hedge funds and private equity funds. He also proposes expanding a 10 percent market-share cap on deposits to include other liabilities such as non-deposit funding to restrict growth and consolidation.""

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-39110913964901663212010-01-24T05:01:00.005-05:002010-02-07T11:16:22.338-05:00

"Shares of Blockbuster Inc fell sharply on Thursday, a day after the U.S. video rental chain said it had a weaker-than-expected holiday season, fueling concerns about its viability.""Blockbuster's shares fell 23 cents, or 31.5 percent, to 50 cents in later afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.""We recognize that changing direction and by providing (better) in stock (inventory) is not

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-65277107109346395362010-01-24T04:46:00.004-05:002010-02-07T11:16:58.607-05:00

"Target Corp. (TGT) slipped 1% to $50.22 after the discounter said it plans to spend $1 billion to renovate and redecorate 340 stores in 2010. The Minneapolis retailing giant will add fewer than 10 additional locations in 2010. In addition, Target said it will test the development of a smaller-store format to meet the needs of customers in urban markets."[Macy's] "We have been studying the

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-63691156088660125532010-01-15T05:48:00.000-05:002010-01-15T05:51:25.561-05:00

The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10cClusterf#@k to the Poor House - Wall Street Bonuseswww.thedailyshow.comDaily Show Full EpisodesPolitical HumorHealth Care Crisis

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-58060863673861328222010-01-13T07:12:00.002-05:002010-01-26T20:41:22.608-05:00

"The People's Bank of China increased bank reserve ratios and nudged interest rates higher in the interbank market Tuesday for the second time in a week in a sign that authorities may be trying to cool the rapid growth in that country's economy.""The central bank ordered a boost in the yuan reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50 basis points, or half a percentage point, effective Jan. 18,

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-57355150396845554982010-01-13T06:48:00.004-05:002010-01-26T20:41:49.155-05:00

"The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in November on rising demand in the U.S. for foreign goods, another sign of a pickup in economic activity.""The nation's trade deficit expanded 9.7% in November to $36.4 billion from $33.2 billion in October, the Commerce Department said.""The November figure is the widest trade gap since January."Link: MarketWatch~End~

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-37763580461670502822010-01-12T06:16:00.006-05:002010-01-13T07:16:51.734-05:00

All About the NumbersCalculated Risk: Employment Report: 85K Jobs Lost, 10% Unemployment Rate - Jan 8, 2010"Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-85,000) in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care added

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-13228989289344158942010-01-08T05:18:00.003-05:002010-01-08T06:50:50.864-05:00

Reuters: Auto sales end '09 on upswing, Ford surges - Jan 5, 2010"Ford Motor Co posted a 33 percent sales gain in December as U.S. auto sales ended 2009 on an upswing after a year when GM and Chrysler went bankrupt and China overtook the United States as the biggest car market."~ Survival of the Fittest - Law of the JungleReuters: Google unveils Nexus One "superphone" - Jan 5, 2010"Google Inc

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-60496987211183186932010-01-06T23:18:00.007-05:002010-01-06T23:38:28.520-05:00

~ Data Corner (MarketWatch): Services index moves back to growth territory, Jan 6, 2010."The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 50.1% from 48.7% in November. Despite moving back into growth territory, the gain was not as robust as expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast the ISM non-manufacturing index to rise to 51%."~ Byron Wien’s ten surprises for 2010"Wien, Vice Chairman of

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-20132009501343364172009-12-01T20:53:00.008-05:002009-12-03T15:23:14.736-05:00

This market is just rallying away.There are plenty of doubters, and rightfully so. And the ones, that put the money where their months were and shorted the rally, got crushed and in a way put more fuel to the market. One respected market observer recapped it as the "hated rally" - how no excitement was observed in the market participants, unlike many other rallies he experienced. Then of

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-11333556240829516812009-07-24T09:46:00.004-04:002009-07-24T09:58:38.232-04:00

High-frequency trading - Stock Traders Find Speed Pays, in Milliseconds.from NY TimesDemocracy - "...in 1998, the Securities and Exchange Commission authorized electronic exchanges to compete with marketplaces like the New York Stock Exchange. The intent was to open markets to anyone with a desktop computer and a fresh idea."Comes With A Price"It is the hot new thing on Wall Street, a way for a

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-38179500978202382472009-07-14T11:01:00.002-04:002009-07-14T11:04:41.131-04:00

Here is an interesting perspective from Zero Hedge. Always very insightful.One piecing thought or highlight is the record revenue vs. the record risk. Goldman, the gunslingers. You have to give it to them.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-37574428512654062452009-06-30T09:03:00.005-04:002009-06-30T09:13:35.153-04:00

We have seen greet shoots of recovery here and there but no doubt Green Shoots as a term is no longer green shoots; it has turned into a life of its own, a catch phrase, a in-the-know badge, a phenomenon. Who is the creator? Where will it end in the history book?Bernanke’s ‘Green Shoots’ Take Over the Lexicon, If Not U.S.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-84697038593305969722009-06-20T22:32:00.005-04:002009-06-20T22:46:41.921-04:00

Interesting stories, here is a quick one on:- The Madoff Spread -"They called it “playing the spread.” Five years ago, if someone had a mortgage-free home in Aspen worth $15 million, he could easily get a mortgage on it for $10 million at 4 percent interest. The carrying costs on that $10 million mortgage would have been $400,000 per year. By investing the $10 million proceeds of the mortgage

John Lunoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-47536962828083960972009-06-11T09:42:00.008-04:002009-06-11T11:48:26.850-04:00

I am off the tangent here a bit. Though not directly related to the market, this piece from Mark Cuban is a must read, regardless of your situation, whether you are in transition for a job, got stuck in a job that you hate, or in a dream job so you think.Ignore the profanity at the front, it's just Cuban, the way he gets his attention. But the post is littered with good thoughts, mostly drawn

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-30625119276139011712009-06-10T10:42:00.003-04:002009-06-10T10:47:41.489-04:00

Is it crying wolf? Or, is it part of the random rumbling like those pre-dated the fall of the residential real estate market? MetLife Says Commercial Mortgage Defaults Will RiseEveryone wants a 20-20 vision that of a hindsight? But time and again, people failed to draw upon the lesson from the history, a 20-20 correction glass that is right there for you to pick up.Be careful out there.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-26192776284965935512009-06-08T10:06:00.003-04:002009-06-08T10:19:00.315-04:00

Yeah, that means a lot from Jim Cramer. Seldom does one read Cramer so serious, almost sobering, and reading like a eulogy. Comical, may be. I call it one of those anti-Cramer moment.For a Cramer moment, you need to check this out again (posted before) - "He (Bernanke) has no idea, he has no idea what's going on out there, none...""they are nuts, they know nothing...""the fed is asleep...""

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-49334394594376280512009-06-04T14:45:00.005-04:002009-06-04T15:46:42.570-04:00

Real estate bubble busted and the tremor was felt wide and hard. WSJ: Big-City Skyscraper Burns Ozark TownIn the Springfield pension fund example, the bottom line is: it is an investment that has gone wild. There are quite a few questions left unanswered:1. Who is the investment advisor of the fund? What role did it play in designing the investment portfolio and more specifically for the

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-88084501696133222852009-06-02T18:31:00.004-04:002009-06-02T18:44:09.638-04:00

Travelers taking Citigroup's spot in the Dow industrials (MarketWatch). Fate, Déjà vu, creative news making, or a bit of all. In this age of hunger for news and attention, even the remaking of the boring DJIA has to be sensational.Traveler is actually replacing AIG as a place holder for the insurance industry. With 30 companies in the index, each replacement is truly a significant event. Is

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-64431864039353834932009-06-02T16:05:00.005-04:002009-06-02T16:35:00.374-04:00

This is Ford's One Ford Mission tag line. I am sure when it devised this strategy years ago, it didn't envision that it would be the lone auto company that avoided the bankruptcy court.Ford's strategic decision to secure its liquidity position a few years ago continues to pay dividends. It is in the enviable position of the last one standing of the big three without much interruption to its

John Lunoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-90877755644398554632009-06-02T08:24:00.008-04:002009-06-02T08:43:06.393-04:00

Market is certainly looking pretty technically. The Bulls are currently winning the popularity contest. See charts below (click on the image for a closer view). For all three indexes, a break-out after some base building / consolidation with above average volume. Dow and Nasdaq Composite convincingly above 200 EMA with S&P 500 closing in.Market is a voting machine in the short-term. And as

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-58734794582877456422009-05-30T16:04:00.004-04:002009-05-30T16:18:51.652-04:00

A great read: Alpha: Paul Tudor Jones IIFirst got to know him through Schwager's Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders. I don't think the answer in the referenced article deviated much from the account in the book. It still rings wisdom and gold."When it comes to trading macro, you cannot rely solely on fundamentals; you have to be a tape reader, which is something of a lost art form...at

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-48155699396749094272009-05-30T15:26:00.004-04:002009-05-30T15:44:26.891-04:00

Bloomberg had a profile of Sheila Bair, chairwoman of FDIC - Bair Attacks Too-Big-to-Fail as Enforcer Geithner Must Trust.It read like a resume of her and somewhat of a publicity stunt. Nonetheless, she deserves the credit for:1) being tough and a straight-shooter, calling it as she saw it, not afraid of taking on the establishment.2) being a Republican and a woman, while better accepted and

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-19635696438592462252009-05-29T14:55:00.004-04:002009-05-30T15:44:42.194-04:00

Here is an article from Economist: Life is expensive.It doesn't offer much new insight to the problem that is plaguing our nation. However the facts and statements are nonetheless powerful.Bottom line: we are paying for the most expensive but not necessarily the best healthcare. Much of the incremental costs go in the way of frivolous lawsuits, unnecessary procedures (that partly come as a

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-14600590510782783662009-05-29T09:24:00.004-04:002009-05-29T09:48:39.249-04:00

Microsoft re-named its search engine "Bing" and hopes one day this will turn it to a verb like "google". I was trying to come up with a clever way to attack this, like it rhymes somewhat like "has been", as its service is no longer relevant in this losing game to Google. Not knowing industry cynics and insiders already came up with something more clever: But It's Not Google - Microsoft’s Search

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-88987879067023461522009-05-28T18:50:00.009-04:002009-05-28T19:03:04.202-04:00

The market is stuck in traffic and side-way actions. From a technical standpoint, it's actually quite healthy.Here is an update of some tables and charts (click on the image for a closer look):S&P 500 1 YearNasdaq 1 YearNasdaq 10 YearVIX ("Fear Factor")GoldOn the verge of a major breakout. The strength of the dollar is the key.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-12952422337151721482009-05-28T10:09:00.002-04:002009-05-28T10:28:29.870-04:00

The yield curve has steepened dramatically: WSJ: Rise in Rates Jolts Markets.Please refer to the previous posts regarding the Bernanke Fed and the so-called Bernanke doctrine (you may find them under the tags of either "Fed" or "Bernanke"). Traditionally, Fed uses the Fed Fund rate (at the short-end of the curve) as the lever to send signals to and manage the expectation of the market. With Fed

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-3657624822932150842009-05-28T08:57:00.002-04:002009-05-28T09:02:47.897-04:00

Of and relative to the managers at his level, Dimon is definitely a micro-manager and he certainly knows what he is talking about. Here is an article from FT: JPMorgan warns on credit card woes."At the end of the first quarter, 12.63 per cent of the WaMu credit card loans were deemed uncollectable by JPMorgan. The bank estimates that figure could reach 18 to 24 per cent by the end of 2009,

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-62525324340189117872009-05-27T09:46:00.003-04:002009-05-27T09:59:03.249-04:00

Bloomberg put out an article yesterday with a sensational claim that,"JPMorgan Chase & Co. stands to reap a $29 billion windfall thanks to an accounting rule that lets the second-biggest U.S. bank transform bad loans it purchased from Washington Mutual Inc. into income." (JPMorgan’s WaMu Windfall Turns Bad Loans Into Income)It's my belief that the argument was ill placed.It's true that an

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-56733851421386524732009-05-21T20:04:00.003-04:002009-05-21T20:07:43.108-04:00

From: American Thinker.A report from the front line. Sad but real. Every decision has its consequences. People need to be held accountable.This relates to my previous post "The Dismantling of An American Franchise" on May 18, 2009.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-86522589257011451552009-05-21T10:41:00.002-04:002009-05-21T11:03:05.578-04:00

The rally in the CMBS secondary market was nothing short of amazing. The recent equity market rally paled in comparison. The AAA spread came in from a high of 15.29% set at Nov 20 (that fateful day when we looked at the devil in the eyes and willed a win) to the recent 5.83%. See: Bloomberg: Commercial Mortgage Bonds Rally on Fed’s Legacy Assets Plan Several comments:1) For people with proper

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-85451787848539756052009-05-21T09:03:00.002-04:002009-05-21T09:14:18.029-04:00

"The conventional wisdom, he admits, congealed quickly: it was a mistake for the government to let Lehman die, and the blame rested squarely with Hank Paulson." Newsweek articleA so-so article. But it did get some insight into the mind of Paulson. Don't get him wrong. He opened up not for charity but was trying to sell his book.Nevertheless I gave it to him that he admitted the Lehman mistake.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-55016216706808750912009-05-18T18:31:00.003-04:002009-05-18T18:39:14.259-04:00

Here is a chart from CalculatedRisk Blog.The chart is based on the data sourced from Federal Reserve's Statistical Release: Charge-off and Delinquency Rates Two comments:1. Obviously there is a time delay in terms of the relevance of the data, which is as of Q1 09.2. The spike of the commercial real estate delinquency rate in the early 90s was a result of the S&L crisis.It's up to the reader of

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-2686355207644208592009-05-18T17:22:00.003-04:002009-05-18T17:31:47.809-04:00

A nice compilation of AIG related articles from "The Big Picture":Washington PostPart I: The Beautiful MachinePart II: A Crack in The SystemPart III: Downgrades And DownfallFortuneAIG's rescue has a long way to goNew York TimesBehind Insurer’s Crisis, Blind Eye to a Web of Risk

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-15857317754875432672009-05-18T13:46:00.004-04:002009-05-18T13:51:21.027-04:00

Or I should say roller coaster. The below chart from www.thechartstore.com.Keep things in perspective.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-4438276352455532762009-05-18T12:01:00.007-04:002009-05-18T18:28:43.439-04:00

I collected a few good articles on AIG and its role in the financial crisis in the past posts (will tag "aig" to those posts for the ease of reference). Here is another one. Joseph Cassano: the man with the trillion-dollar price on his headIt didn't offer many new perspectives or details about the AIG unit. But it does have a sensational title and some notable comments."Some call him Patient

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-18326150141684213192009-05-18T09:08:00.005-04:002009-05-18T13:51:56.026-04:00

People will come back with different answers. But generally, it seemed that the earnings were not bad or as bad as expected, with plenty of upside surprises, which helped fuel the rally since March. However, this "out performance" was relative to, as the reappearing headlines read, lowered estimates. So let's call it an analyst-induced rally.So does the following chart come as a surprise?Quote

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-9629447398511094682009-05-18T08:57:00.003-04:002009-05-18T13:52:28.940-04:00

No rush for a or I should say, 7 NY T-shirts yet - the way the price has come down.You need a light moment once in a while.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-47837985899388598802009-05-18T05:59:00.008-04:002009-05-18T13:52:51.723-04:00

So nation’s auto companies reached the end of the rope and came to a day of reckoning. The auto dealerships, that are very much part of our urban as well as suburban landscapes, face serious crisis. (Chrysler to dump 25% of dealers; 4 in South Florida)Here are a few observations:1. The closing of the dealerships means an immediate job loss north of 100k nationwide.2. It’s hard to reposition an

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-77902300437138660342009-05-18T05:28:00.007-04:002009-05-18T13:53:18.618-04:00

Visited Woodbury Common - a NY tourist destination of choice the other day. We have a few family visitors from overseas too so we took them their as one of the stops.The main parking lot was filled to capacity. My first reaction is: this is no recession.Check these out. Let's first assume that a significant part of the volume is from the locals. Then it's an indication that either:1) the

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-85642459715606732382009-05-11T19:20:00.002-04:002009-05-18T13:53:41.939-04:00

We need an out. What's wrong with this one?The Solution to the Global Financial Crisis

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-24939075199551160022009-05-09T18:26:00.004-04:002009-05-18T13:54:03.211-04:00

Goodbye David Rosenberg from Zero Hedge."Never be a slave to the data – they are no substitute for astute observation of the big picture.""The consensus rarely gets it right and almost always errs on the side of optimism – except at the bottom.""Have respect for what the markets are telling you.""Get the US consumer right and everything else will take care of itself."

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-30744622386728464622009-05-09T17:09:00.014-04:002009-05-18T16:56:06.778-04:00

From "Matrix":Neo: So is this the same Oracle that made the prophecy?Morpheus: Yes. She's very old. She's been with us since the beginning.Neo: The beginning...?Morpheus: Of the resistance.Neo: And she knows what, everything?Morpheus: She would say she knows enough.Neo: And she's never wrong.Morpheus: Try not to think of it in terms of right and wrong. She is a guide. She can help you find the

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-32925249829760824262009-05-09T16:28:00.003-04:002009-05-18T16:57:07.358-04:00

The fierce rally in the past month and half really doused the simmering fire of the dissenting voices - those of reason or doubt. The points are a) "never argue with the market", and b)"you need thick skin to be a contrarian". The bears are going back to the drawing board and picking apart their analysis.Nevertheless, the old adage also goes "market climbs on a wall of worry". You need to have

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-17958877744210612332009-05-09T16:06:00.003-04:002009-05-18T16:57:35.816-04:00

For people who want relatively unfiltered data to form their own opinion, here is a useful report.Full report: Fed quarterly survey of Senior Loan Officers on Bank Lending PracticesFor time challenged people: ChartsDraw your own conclusions on the information from ground level or front line.Sourced from Calculated Risk; strong in data and graphs - recommend to add it to your tool box.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-64740886213179623522009-05-09T10:23:00.004-04:002009-05-18T16:57:58.659-04:00

Being a numbers person, I was trying to evaluate the stress test results of individual banks (SCAP: Overview of Results). After going through its design and implementation (SCAP: Design and Implementation), I had difficulty working out the capital buffer consistently across all banks.I started off the aggregate numbers in Table 2 of the final report and backed into a Tier 1 Common Capital ratio

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-89480661551785233082009-05-08T18:34:00.004-04:002009-05-18T16:58:44.047-04:00

While stress test results are grabbing attention and occupying precious headline real estate, Fannie Mae is quietly asking for another $19 Billion from Treasury. See the link to an article from Bloomberg: Fannie Mae to Tap $19 Billion in Treasury Capital.People probably can argue that this is already yesterday's news and the new capital call is just another installment of what has already been

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-76711609013672902009-05-08T14:29:00.004-04:002009-05-18T16:59:20.392-04:00

Charlie Rose with Tim Geithner, May 6, 2009The night before the release of the stress test result.See link: An hour with Timothy Geithner, U.S. Treasury Secretary It was an engaging discussion that covered a broad range of subjects. However, it does feel a lot like a PR campaign with prepared questions and scripted answers. No tough questions. Mostly heavily trafficked matters.I am sure it

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-83809641463291542572009-05-06T07:42:00.005-04:002009-05-18T16:59:50.679-04:00

Incredible story. Talking about wealth destruction. This is not an electronic blip in a web of computers somewhere. Front row seat of an unfolding saga.It begs the question. Who is paying for all this?Here is the link from wsj: No Sale: Bank Wrecks New Houses

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-13268893008928144282009-05-01T11:43:00.005-04:002009-05-18T17:00:11.107-04:00

Among all the talks of possible bottoming out of the economy and with the market front-running this turn-around, here is a picture which shows the trend as well as the state of the affair of the job market.(Please click on the image for a closer look)Source: Investor's Business DailyAlso, no one wants to be a pessimist. To me, it means that you want to be an optimist strategically, but from a

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-14604763268008712072009-04-30T20:12:00.007-04:002009-05-18T17:00:32.749-04:00

Another month flew by in color. Here is a tally of where we have been:As can be seen on the above, small cap dominated April performance - the animal spirit is back.Nasdaq 1 Year ChartNasdaq tempted its fate at EMA 200 today and faded away. Will the 200 EMA line become a teaser like the 50 EMA line previously? Time will tell. But the 10 Year chart below is more illustrative.Nasdaq 10 Year

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-19687656750407739462009-04-29T20:20:00.006-04:002009-05-18T17:01:06.295-04:00

In NYC today and caught this on the camera. I guess our banks came a long way and now serve the people who spend instead. Mutual - no more. "No Dollar Left Behind" - Anonymous(Click on the photo for a larger image)

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-37385236697050611192009-04-28T08:38:00.005-04:002009-05-18T17:01:48.928-04:00

Charlie Rose - Friday, April 24, 2009A conversation about the economy with Bill Ackman, major investor and hedge fund manager of Pershing Square Capital Management LP, Kate Kelly of The Wall Street Journal, Andrew Ross Sorkin of The New York Times and Joseph Stiglitz, economist and a member of Columbia University faculty.Bill Ackman seems very smart but doesn't look like the type A personality

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-69674456678334070372009-04-27T22:05:00.008-04:002009-05-18T17:02:07.835-04:00

Unless you are really interested in this part of the financial lore, I don’t really want to bore you with this presentation which is over an hour. It was made by Eric Rosenfeld, a central figure in the LTCM story, well documented in the book “When Genius failed”. Nothing beats hearing from the major player in first person. Obviously I have tremendous respect for him. The criticism below doesn

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-60019258699045187262009-04-27T17:36:00.006-04:002009-05-18T17:02:38.212-04:00

With listless wind. The market seems induced into early summer hibernation by this weather, as indicated by the unseasonal low volume today. "Where is everybody?"I wish I had more to report. But as mentioned before, two points:1) it's the calmness before the storm and sit tight.2) the market is building the strength. The longer the doldrums, the more powerful the next leg of the actions will

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-59280646538183104402009-04-26T09:58:00.005-04:002009-05-18T17:03:33.803-04:00

To a beautiful day, cheers.At the risk of playing a hand one time too many, but to celebrate such a beautiful day that is coming up, here is an update of a chart posted previously. The correlation efficient came off slightly from 0.60+ to lower 0.50s but still a respectable moderate positive correlation. I do hope this breaks down sooner than later before insanity creeps in.No significant

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-31823561301312573832009-04-26T09:35:00.004-04:002009-05-18T12:35:00.305-04:00

The central bankers - we came a long way. The below chart from the Economist article helps you visualize how such a role has changed in this crisis:A couple of highlights from the article:"IN THE world that existed before the financial crisis, central bankers were triumphant. They had defeated inflation and tamed the business cycle. And they had developed a powerful intellectual consensus on how

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-31960532294013733722009-04-26T08:28:00.005-04:002009-05-18T12:25:34.541-04:00

Here is a good article from Economist about the current state of affairs. First, the title picture, which says it all.Before you proceed with the article, I have two comments:1. From a pure technical standpoint, you want the market to build a strong base before it starts a sustainable rally. The key is sustainable. The recent pause is good but not long enough. Here is a 10 year chart of S&P

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-92141043856927801872009-04-23T12:14:00.005-04:002009-05-18T12:26:05.861-04:00

Here is an article by Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic. A scathing personal account about his experience with Merrill Lynch or stock broker in general. As an extension to the main line, also about the dilemma average American faces in dealing with his own personal finance. It's kind of soul baring and very true - an opportunity for you to look into the mirror.Quite a fun read. A few excerpts:

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-9637487599073140932009-04-23T05:31:00.004-04:002009-05-18T17:04:00.314-04:00

Here is an article from NYT dated a while back - around the time when the stress tests were announced.Looking for Specifics in Bank Stress TestsOne of the assumptions is: "Both scenarios have the recession bottoming out in the second quarter of 2009: the baseline sees G.D.P. falling 2 percent from the second quarter of last year while the “more adverse” scenario sees it falling by 4 percent."

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-79992077153725589122009-04-22T11:04:00.006-04:002009-05-18T12:26:32.373-04:00

Everyone is anxious about the stress test result - whether the banks will get a relatively OK bill of health. At least, the initial indication from Treasury yesterday was positive.Please check out the attached FT article from Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO. It looks beyond a yes or no answer from the stress test and put a constructive framework around the interpretation of the test and

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-8973850086325686082009-04-22T06:11:00.006-04:002009-05-18T17:04:28.429-04:00

On a lighter note. Here is a clip from "Swimming with Sharks". Kevin Spacey is just great.Sorry I am not able to edit out the expletives, so view it at your discretion, but away from the kids obviously.Shut up, Listen, LearnIf the market were a tyrant and prick, very much so this day and age, you just wouldn't come in and ask for a reconciliation. Shut up, listen and learn. I hope my blog,

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-13489827621793839792009-04-21T15:58:00.006-04:002009-05-18T17:04:58.254-04:00

Here is an article from a market commentator of the Chinese equity market. It's in Chinese. Though the points raised are all about common follies of average investors, it's still quite a fun read. I wish I were able to translate it into proper English. And I am afraid that if I attempted to do that, it would turn out to be a watered-down Starbucks coffee.叶弘论股

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-78760137214946775422009-04-20T16:53:00.016-04:002009-05-18T17:05:28.917-04:00

Today's NYC weather: gloomy with a high of 49'F. Sounds familiar? The positive correlation between NYC weather and the market actions continues (see my post "Food for Thought" on April 17).So we had a bad day. How bad? Let's put things into perspective.First off, how are we doing on a MTD and YTD basis?So it's not that bad, we are still clawing our way back.How about some updates on our

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-89344994898994038372009-04-20T16:20:00.008-04:002009-05-18T17:06:20.862-04:00

We all know the importance of protecting the food chain and how difficult it is to flush toxic material out after the fact. I think the current problem we have with the toxic assets rendered us the same dilemma.As a follow-on of the recent post "Asset Price Bubble - Lessons Learned", specifically on the statement by Janet Yellen in her speech, "At the same time, securitization added distance

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-1562607671648762582009-04-20T08:25:00.008-04:002009-05-18T17:06:47.467-04:00

Here is the help - a nice compilation sourced from Zero Hedge:(Click on the image for a closer view)Bailout ProgramsProgram Requirements

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-43225702018796326182009-04-20T07:42:00.005-04:002009-05-18T12:27:03.306-04:00

Here is a sobering piece on GE."It is notable that GECC has extensive exposure to Eastern Europe, which in this author's view, will likely be the next major shoe to drop from a global fundamental perspective."A link to the full analysis: The Threat Of GECC's Disappearing Tangible Common Equity Value

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-9730554168048122472009-04-20T07:15:00.005-04:002009-05-18T12:27:36.101-04:00

I have sympathy for the big fund managers. They are just the big elephants in the room and no where to run and let alone hide. Bill Miller may celebrate his comeback, if it's a real one. But it's sobering to learn that, "Quant momentum managers may have tumbled 27 percent this month in the U.S., the most since at least 1993, while those in Europe may have lost 20 percent in March and 24

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-58381965296698640222009-04-20T06:43:00.005-04:002009-05-18T12:27:59.816-04:00

So excluding the impact of preferred stock, Citigroup said quarterly earnings were $1.59 billion, its first profit on that basis since the third quarter of 2007. First off, such an adjustment was misplaced and didn't reflect the cost of capital that enabled it to stay in the business in the first place. But that's besides the point.Please refer to the attached analysis on the Daily Reckoning.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-16550308732021759122009-04-19T15:55:00.005-04:002009-05-18T17:07:15.257-04:00

Here is a link to the text of a recent speech by San Fran Fed president Janet Yellen. There is nothing really new coming out of the speech. But it was a good compilation of the arguments related to the matter. The footnotes provided a wealth of information for further exploration.And the speech was well drafted with a lot of clarity.Some of the excerpts are as follows (emphasis added):"...many of

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-7220025005776214102009-04-17T05:55:00.008-04:002009-05-18T17:08:06.298-04:00

Last week, I put forth a conjecture of the relationship between the NYC temperature and the daily action of the market. As I observed that in April, the market tended to have a jolly mood on a beautiful spring day and sag whenever the day turned chilly. I did some data compilation and came up with the following chart:Here are a few comments:1) The market did show a strong correlation with the

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-64894169582003630552009-04-14T05:45:00.016-04:002009-05-18T17:08:39.295-04:00

Currently, the market actions are mostly dominated by the 1Q earnings news, especially the financials. It's almost a toss-up if you want to position yourself based on the speculation of how the earnings will come out. I think the recent market rally already priced in strong earnings from the financials and Goldman Sachs certainly didn't disappoint last night. However, be wary of the

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-39597000934850548372009-04-13T13:44:00.004-04:002009-05-18T17:09:10.348-04:00

Currently, this blog primarily focuses on the US equity market. The target readers are friends and guests - the typical retail investors who have some experience in investment.Though the bond and currency markets are reserved mostly for well capitalized institutional investors, the actions in those markets determine the interest rate / yield curve as well as the foreign exchange rates, which

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-10164015192790740802009-04-12T11:45:00.005-04:002009-05-18T12:28:24.219-04:00

The now famous 2002 Bernanke speech as a Fed Governor on Deflation.Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-25897202068310382372009-04-11T07:31:00.005-04:002009-05-18T17:09:40.531-04:00

Regardless of where you think we are in the cycle - which is a more than a few billion dollar question, Ritholtz's analysis of a typical bear market is very insightful.Please note: the following is a quote entirely from Barry Ritholtz's the Big Picture website. The weblink didn't work so I posted it as a text form here.Bear Market Rally ?from The Big Picture by Barry RitholtzIs this the real

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-73453501964311455652009-04-11T07:12:00.006-04:002009-05-18T17:10:05.301-04:00

Here is an article on a sentiment review of the individual investors. The data was as of the end of Feb.Sentiment Review 4.09.09It looks like the Bulls deserve a vote of confidence with so much money on the sideline. However, had the data been brought current, I am not so sure how significant the picture would have changed.To shed some light on this, please compare with another chart I posted

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-10698441592035732082009-04-11T06:59:00.006-04:002009-05-18T12:28:54.744-04:00

One thing I have to say about Jim Cramer is that he thrives or drinks on controversy. Name calling got a lash back. I mean mean lashes.Economist Nouriel Roubini lashes out at CNBC hostSee a related post "Cramer vs. Cramer" on April 8, 2009.

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-87869988226588076522009-04-11T05:47:00.004-04:002009-05-18T17:10:31.925-04:00

I have been adding posts that sort of poured cold water on this rally, certainly not cheer leading. Don't get me wrong. Like everyone else, I wish we are hitting or already hit the bottom and will have a sustainable rally from here on.The old saying goes, "market climbs on the wall of worry." An analogy that fits here is like this: not sure if you ever have a coal burning stove, sometimes to

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-59321363493900463972009-04-10T18:43:00.010-04:002009-05-18T17:10:55.725-04:00

Let's review the channel chart I posted the other day. As I mentioned, you need to use it as a confirmation tool instead of a primary trading tool. It could be deadly for an overnight position as can be seen from the actions on the 9th. There is a time gap of over 17 hours for overnight news to develop and that’s just too much risk to carry for a weak formation that of a multi-day channel.A

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-14318243712844882592009-04-10T18:16:00.018-04:002009-05-18T17:11:15.975-04:00

Comments on the market of April 9, 2009The market exhibits the manic depressive disorder. Up and down like a yo-yo. Yes, Wells Fargo had a good quarter. But why does it have to pre-announce the quarter before the holiday? Or why does it have to pre-announce at all? The timing comes in perfect from a technical standpoint - what they call "a cup and handle formation", which foretells a powerful

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1118135379975467173.post-9848692864262410412009-04-09T05:47:00.007-04:002009-05-18T17:12:17.911-04:00

The following chart indicates the percentage of big board stocks that are above 50 day moving average. I call it a popularity test or a market poll. I lined it up with the S&P 500 chart of the same time frame. You can see the recent strong correlation between the two. The 50d MA chart shows how well the recent rally was participated. It is also an indication that in the near-term, there is

John Lunoreply@blogger.com0